The chip and semiconductor sectors have once again become the sweet pastry of the market. At the close of the market on June 23, the Shenwan Secondary Semiconductor Index rose by more than 5.16% in a single day. After rising by 7.98% in a single day on June 17, Changyang was once again pulled out. Public and private equity institutions generally believe that the staged boom in semiconductors may continue, and there is ample room for long-term development.
The semiconductor sector has risen recently
Taking a closer look, in the Shenwan Secondary Semiconductor Index, the two constituent stocks of Ashi Chuang and Guokewei both rose 20% on the same day. Among the 47 constituent stocks of the index, 16 stocks rose more than 5% in a single day.
As of the close on June 23, among 104 Shenwan secondary indexes, semiconductors have risen by 17.04% this month, second only to automobiles, ranking second.
At the same time, the net value of semiconductor-related ETFs with “chips” and “semiconductors” in their names has also risen. At the same time, the net value of many active fund products in the semiconductor industry has also risen significantly.
From the perspective of the development prospects of the chip and semiconductor industries, public equity institutions generally indicated that they are optimistic about the long-term development prospects. China Southern Fund Shi Bo said that he continues to be optimistic about the localization process of the semiconductor industry. Catalyzed by global “core shortage” and other factors, the localization of the semiconductor industry chain is imperative. Whether it is traditional semiconductor equipment materials, or the development of third-generation semiconductors and new process technologies, it shows China’s determination to continue to cultivate in the semiconductor field.
According to Pan Yongchang of Nord Fund, innovation and prosperity of the technology industry are resonating, and the medium and long-term growth momentum is strong. For example, the short-term demand in the semiconductor field is strong and the supply is tight. The logic of the short-term imbalance between supply and demand resonates with the medium- and long-term logic, which may drive the semiconductor sector’s prosperity to continue to rise.
Industry boom is expected to continue to rise
From the perspective of phased supply and demand, many investors interviewed said that the continued upward boom in the semiconductor industry will be a high probability event. You Guoliang, the fund manager of the Great Wall Jiujia Innovation Growth Fund, said that the fundamentals of the semiconductor sector have been improving in recent years, especially in the past two years, the performance growth of related companies has generally been relatively high. The chip field began to be out of stock in the fourth quarter of last year, and the industry’s prosperity was further improved. It can be seen that the performance of many semiconductor-related listed companies continues to grow rapidly, especially some power semiconductor companies, due to the driving of automobile electrification and intelligence, the performance of this year’s quarterly report is outstanding, exceeding market expectations.
Kong Xuebing, managing director and fund manager of the investment department of Jinxin Fund, recently pointed out that it should be a high probability event for the semiconductor industry to achieve a performance growth rate of more than 20% in 2021; from IC design to wafer manufacturing to packaging and testing, both volume and price have risen globally. It is a common phenomenon of sex; it is expected that the global semiconductor production capacity will be tight until 2022.
Ping An Fund Xue Jiying said that from the perspective of short-term prosperity, “demand recovery + inventory stocking + insufficient supply” has led to a tight global semiconductor supply and demand in the first half of 2021. The phenomenon of “core shortage” is serious. The main reasons are as follows: from the demand side In terms of downstream demand, the downstream demand for automobiles and industries is recovering rapidly. Structural innovations such as 5G and new energy vehicles have brought new growth. In addition, the epidemic affects the demand for mobile phones and the automotive industry, and upstream chips generally digest inventory and demand recovery. After the supply was limited, terminal companies increased chip purchases, and chip companies increased demand for wafers. In the first half of this year, the short-term contradiction between supply and demand intensified. From the perspective of the supply side, the supply of mature processes is limited, and the overall global semiconductor supply is relatively small. The peak of the last round of expansion was the first half of 2017-2018. After that, under the influence of external disturbances, there was less expansion and less equipment investment in 2019. , In 2020, equipment investment will increase (+30% year-on-year), but the actual production capacity is low (affected by the epidemic). Xue Jiying predicts that the semiconductor industry’s boom will last at least until the first half of next year. Under this circumstance, investment opportunities in the sector will increase. For the industry itself, it has a good industry trend. Under the high boom, it is more worthwhile to explore more individual stock opportunities. .
Invesco Great Wall Fund Manager Yang Ruiwen said: First, this is an unprecedented semiconductor boom cycle, which is reflected in the obvious increase in volume and price, which will last more than two years; second, chip design companies with capacity support will receive unprecedented The supply-side reform of chip design companies will start; third, relevant Chinese manufacturers will face historic opportunities, and global cooperation is the key to reducing the negative economic impact; fourth, the shortage of automotive chips is the earliest, and the probability is also the earliest The segmented areas that solve the supply and demand difficulties, but will bring further “core shortage” in other areas.
Shenzhen Yihu Investment Analysis believes that from the recent disk perspective, technology stocks are gradually coming out of the bottom, and the semiconductor industry is even hotter. The semiconductor industry is one of the sectors most affected by the global configuration of the industrial chain. Under the epidemic situation, global chain and supply interruptions continue, and the “core shortage” dilemma has not been effectively alleviated. In the context of semiconductor supply and demand imbalances, semiconductor supply chain companies are expected to maintain High prosperity, focusing on third-generation semiconductors, including related investment opportunities in MCU, driver IC, and RF device segments.
Post time: Jun-24-2021