The chip shortage of automobiles has not yet ended, and the power “battery shortage” is ushered in again.
Recently, rumors about the shortage of power batteries for new energy vehicles have been increasing. Ningde era publicly stated that they had been rushed for shipments. Later, there were rumors that He Xiaopeng went to the factory to squat goods, and even CCTV Finance Channel reported.
Well-known new car manufacturers at home and abroad have also emphasized this point. Weilai Li Bin once said that the shortage of power batteries and chips restricts the production capacity of Weilai Automobile. After the sales of cars in July, Weilai also once again. Emphasizes the problems of the supply chain.
Tesla has a greater demand for batteries. At present, it has established a cooperative relationship with many power battery companies. Musk has even released a bold statement: power battery companies buy as many batteries as they produce. On the other hand, Tesla is also in trial production of 4680 batteries.
In fact, the actions of power battery companies can also tell a general idea of this matter. Since the beginning of this year, several domestic power battery companies such as Ningde Times, BYD, AVIC Lithium, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and even Honeycomb Energy have signed contracts in China. Build a factory. The actions of battery companies also seem to announce the existence of power battery shortages.
So what is the extent of the shortage of power batteries? What is the main reason? How did auto companies and battery companies respond? To this end, Che Dongxi contacted some car companies and battery company insiders and got some real answers.
1. Network transmission power battery shortage, some car companies have long been prepared
In the era of new energy vehicles, power batteries have become an indispensable key raw material. However, in recent times, theories about the shortage of power batteries have been circulating. There are even media reports that the founder of Xiaopeng Motors, He Xiaopeng, stayed for a week in the Ningde era for batteries, but this news was later denied by He Xiaopeng himself. In an exclusive interview with a reporter from China Business News, He Xiaopeng said that this report was untrue, and he also saw it from the news.
But such rumors also reflect more or less that there is indeed a certain degree of battery shortage in new energy vehicles.
However, there are different opinions on the battery shortage in various reports. The real situation is not clear. In order to understand the current shortage of power batteries, the car and the power battery industry have communicated with many people in the automobile and power battery industries. Some first-hand information.
The car company first talked with some people from the car company. Although Xiaopeng Motors first reported the news of a battery shortage, when the car was seeking confirmation from Xiaopeng Motors, the other party replied that “there is no such news at present, and the official information shall prevail.”
In the past July, Xiaopeng Motors sold 8,040 new cars, an increase of 22% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 228%, breaking the single-month delivery record. It can also be seen that Xiaopeng Motors’ demand for batteries is indeed increasing. , But whether the order is affected by the battery, Xiaopeng officials did not say.
On the other hand, Weilai revealed its concerns about batteries very early. In March of this year, Li Bin said that the battery supply in the second quarter of this year would encounter the biggest bottleneck. “Batteries and chips (shortage) will limit Weilai’s monthly deliveries to around 7,500 vehicles, and this situation will continue until July.”
Just a few days ago, Weilai Automobile announced that it had sold 7,931 new cars in July. After the sales volume was announced, Ma Lin, senior director of corporate communications and public relations director of Weilai Automobile, said in his personal circle of friends: All year round, the 100-degree battery will be available soon. Norwegian delivery is not far away. The supply chain capacity is not enough to meet the requirements.”
However, as to whether the supply chain mentioned by Ma Lin is a power battery or an in-vehicle chip, it is still unclear. However, some media reports said that although Weilai began to deliver 100-degree batteries, many stores are currently out of stock.
Just recently, Chedong also interviewed personnel from a cross-border car manufacturing company. The employees of the company said that the current report shows that there is indeed a shortage of power batteries, and their company has already prepared inventory in 2020, so today and tomorrow. Years will not be affected by the battery shortage.
Che Dong further asked whether its inventory refers to the production capacity pre-booked with the battery company or the direct purchase of the product to store in the warehouse. The other party answered that it has both.
Che Dong also asked a traditional car company, but the answer was that it has not been affected yet.
From the contact with car companies, it seems that the current power battery has not encountered a shortage, and most car companies have encountered no problems with the battery supply. But to look at the matter objectively, it cannot be simply judged by the argument of the car company, and the argument of the battery company is also critical.
2. Battery companies bluntly say that production capacity is insufficient, and material suppliers are rushing to work
When communicating with car companies, the car company also consulted some insiders of power battery companies.
Ningde Times has long expressed to the outside world that the capacity of power batteries is tight. As early as this May, at the Ningde Times shareholders meeting, the chairman of the Ningde Times, Zeng Yuqun, said that “customers really can’t bear the recent demand for goods.”
When Che Dongxi asked the Ningde Times for verification, the reply he got was “Zeng Zeng made a public statement,” which can be regarded as a confirmation of this information. After further inquiries, Che Dong learned that not all batteries in the Ningde era are currently in short supply. At present, the supply of high-end batteries is mainly in short supply.
CATL is a major supplier of high-nickel ternary lithium batteries in China, as well as a major supplier of NCM811 batteries. The high-end battery expressed by CATL most likely refers to this battery. It is worth noting that most of the batteries currently used by Weilai are NCM811.
Domestic power battery dark horse company Honeycomb Energy also revealed to Che Dongxi that the current power battery capacity is insufficient, and this year’s production capacity has been booked.
After Che Dongxi asked Guoxuan High-Tech, it also got the news that the current power battery production capacity is insufficient, and the existing production capacity has been booked. Earlier, Guoxuan Hi-Tech employees disclosed on the Internet that in order to ensure the supply of batteries to key downstream customers, the production base is working overtime to catch up.
In addition, according to public media reports, in May this year, Yiwei Lithium Energy disclosed in an announcement that the company’s existing factories and production lines were operating at full capacity, but it is expected that the supply of products will continue to be in short supply for the past year.
BYD is also increasing its purchase of raw materials recently, and it seems to be a preparation to increase production capacity.
The tight production capacity of power battery companies has correspondingly affected the working conditions of upstream raw material companies.
Ganfeng Lithium is a leading supplier of lithium materials in China, and has direct cooperative relations with many power battery companies. In an interview with the media, Huang Jingping, director of the quality department of Ganfeng Lithium Electric Power Battery Factory, said: From the beginning of the year to the present, we have basically not stopped production. For one month, we will basically be in full production for 28 days. “
Based on the responses of car companies, battery companies, and raw material suppliers, it can basically be concluded that there is a shortage of power batteries in the new stage. Some car companies have made arrangements in advance to ensure the current battery supply. The impact of tight battery production capacity.
In fact, the shortage of power batteries is not a new problem that has only appeared in recent years, so why has this problem become more prominent in recent times?
3. The new energy market exceeds expectations, and the price of raw materials has risen significantly
Similar to the reason for the shortage of chips, the shortage of power batteries is also inseparable from the skyrocketing market.
According to data from the China Automobile Association, in the first half of this year, the domestic production of new energy vehicles and passenger vehicles was 1.215 million, a year-on-year increase of 200.6%.
Among them, 1.149 million new vehicles were new energy passenger vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 217.3%, of which 958,000 were pure electric models, a year-on-year increase of 255.8%, and the plug-in hybrid version was 191,000, a year-on-year increase of 105.8%.
In addition, there were 67,000 new energy commercial vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 57.6%, of which the output of pure electric commercial vehicles was 65,000, a year-on-year increase of 64.5%, and the output of hybrid commercial vehicles was 10 thousand, a year-on-year decrease of 49.9%. From these data, it is not difficult to see that this year’s hot new energy vehicle market, whether pure electric or plug-in hybrids, has seen substantial growth, and the overall market growth has doubled.
Let’s take a look at the situation of power batteries. In the first half of this year, my country’s power battery output was 74.7GWh, a cumulative increase of 217.5% year-on-year. From the perspective of growth, the output of power batteries has also improved a lot, but is the output of power batteries sufficient?
Let’s make a simple calculation, taking the power battery capacity of a passenger car as 60kWh. The battery demand for passenger cars is: 985000*60kWh=59100000kWh, which is 59.1GWh (rough calculation, the result is for reference only).
The battery capacity of the plug-in hybrid model is basically around 20kWh. Based on this, the battery demand of the plug-in hybrid model is: 191000*20=3820000kWh, which is 3.82GWh.
The volume of pure electric commercial vehicles is larger, and the demand for battery capacity is also greater, which can basically reach 90kWh or 100kWh. From this calculation, the battery demand for commercial vehicles is 65000*90kWh=5850000kWh, which is 5.85GWh.
Roughly calculated, new energy vehicles need at least 68.77GWh of power batteries in the first half of the year, and the output of power batteries in the first half of the year is 74.7GWh. The difference between the values is not large, but this does not take into account that the power batteries have been ordered but have not yet been produced. For car models, if the values are added together, the result may even exceed the output of power batteries.
On the other hand, the continuous price increase of power battery raw materials has also restricted the production capacity of battery companies. Public data shows that the current mainstream price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is between 85,000 yuan and 89,000 yuan/ton, which is a 68.9% increase from the price of 51,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and compared with last year’s 48,000 yuan/ton. Increased by about double.
The price of lithium hydroxide has also risen from 49,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to the current 95,000-97,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 95.92%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen from the lowest of 64,000 yuan/ton in 2020 to around 400,000 yuan/ton, and the price has increased more than six times.
According to data from Ping An Securities, in the first half of the year, the price of ternary materials rose by 30%, and the price of lithium iron phosphate materials rose by 50%.
In other words, the current two main technical routes in the power battery field are facing the price increase of raw materials. Ningde Times Chairman Zeng Yuqun also talked about the price increase of power battery raw materials at the shareholders meeting. The rising price of raw materials will also have a significant impact on the output of power batteries.
In addition, it is not easy to increase production capacity in the power battery field. It takes about 1.5 to 2 years to build a new power battery factory, and it also requires investment of billions of dollars. In the short term, capacity expansion is not realistic.
The power battery industry is still a high-barrier industry, with relatively high requirements for technical thresholds. In order to ensure product consistency, many car companies will place orders with top players, which has led to several battery companies in the top to take Walked more than 80% of the market. Correspondingly, the production capacity of the top players also determines the production capacity of the industry.
In the short term, the shortage of power batteries may still exist, but fortunately, car companies and power battery companies are already looking for solutions.
4. The battery companies are not idle when they build factories and invest in mines
For battery companies, production capacity and raw materials are two issues that need to be resolved urgently.
Almost all batteries are now actively expanding their production capacity. CATL has successively invested in two major battery factory projects in Sichuan and Jiangsu, with an investment amount of 42 billion yuan. The battery plant invested in Yibin, Sichuan will become one of the largest battery factories in CATL.
In addition, Ningde Times also has a Ningde Cheliwan lithium-ion battery production base project, a lithium-ion battery expansion project in Huxi, and a battery factory in Qinghai. According to the plan, by 2025, the total power battery production capacity of CATL will be increased to 450GWh.
BYD is also accelerating its production capacity. At present, the blade batteries of the Chongqing plant have been put into production, with an annual production capacity of about 10GWh. BYD has also built a battery plant in Qinghai. In addition, BYD also plans to build new battery plants in Xi’an and Chongqing Liangjiang New District.
According to BYD’s plan, the total production capacity including blade batteries is expected to increase to 100GWh by 2022.
In addition, some battery companies such as Guoxuan High-Tech, AVIC Lithium Battery, and Honeycomb Energy are also accelerating production capacity planning. Guoxuan Hi-Tech will invest in the construction of lithium battery production projects in Jiangxi and Hefei from May to June this year. According to Guoxuan Hi-Tech’s plan, both battery plants will be put into operation in 2022.
Guoxuan High-Tech predicts that by 2025, the battery production capacity can be increased to 100GWh. AVIC Lithium Battery successively invested in power battery production bases and mineral projects in Xiamen, Chengdu and Wuhan in May this year, and plans to increase battery production capacity to 200GWh by 2025.
In April and May this year, Honeycomb Energy signed power battery projects in Ma’anshan and Nanjing respectively. According to official data, Honeycomb Energy’s planned annual production capacity of its power battery plant in Ma’anshan is 28GWh. In May, Honeycomb Energy signed an agreement with Nanjing Lishui Development Zone, planning to invest 5.6 billion yuan in the construction of a power battery production base with a total capacity of 14.6GWh.
In addition, Honeycomb Energy already owns the Changzhou plant and is stepping up the construction of the Suining plant. According to Honeycomb Energy’s plan, 200GWh of production capacity will also be achieved in 2025.
Through these projects, it is not difficult to find that power battery companies are currently frantically expanding their production capacity. It is roughly calculated that by 2025, the production capacity of these companies will reach 1TWh. Once these factories are all put into production, the shortage of power batteries will be effectively alleviated.
In addition to expanding production capacity, battery companies are also deploying in the field of raw materials. CATL announced at the end of last year that it would spend 19 billion yuan to invest in power battery industry chain companies. At the end of May this year, Yiwei Lithium Energy and Huayou Cobalt invested in a laterite nickel hydrometallurgical smelting project in Indonesia and established a company. According to the plan, this project will produce approximately 120,000 tons of nickel metal and approximately 15,000 tons of cobalt metal per year. The product
Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Yichun Mining Co., Ltd. established a joint venture mining company, which also strengthened the layout of upstream lithium resources.
Some car companies have also started to produce their own power batteries. The Volkswagen Group is developing its own standard battery cells and deploying lithium iron phosphate batteries, ternary lithium batteries, high manganese batteries and solid-state batteries. It plans to go global construction by 2030. Six factories have achieved a production capacity of 240GWh.
Overseas media reported that Mercedes-Benz is also planning to produce its own power battery.
In addition to self-produced batteries, at this stage, car companies have also established cooperation with a number of battery suppliers to ensure that the sources of batteries are abundant, and to alleviate the problem of power battery shortages as much as possible.
5. Conclusion: Will power battery shortage be a protracted battle?
After the above in-depth investigation and analysis, we can find through interviews and surveys and rough calculations that there is indeed a certain shortage of power batteries, but it has not fully affected the field of new energy vehicles. Many car companies still have certain stocks.
The reason for the shortage of power batteries in car-making is mainly inseparable from the surge in the new energy automobile market. The sales of new energy vehicles in the first half of this year increased by about 200% over the same period last year. The growth rate is very obvious, which has also led to battery companies It is difficult for production capacity to keep up with demand in a short period of time.
At present, power battery companies and new energy car companies are thinking of ways to solve the problem of battery shortage. The most important measure is to expand the production capacity of battery companies, and the expansion of production capacity requires a certain cycle.
Therefore, in the short term, power batteries will be in short supply, but in the long term, with the gradual release of power battery capacity, it is not certain whether the power battery capacity will exceed demand, and there may be an oversupply situation in the future. And this may also be the reason why power battery companies have paced expansion of production capacity.
Post time: Aug-06-2021